Since the 2026 Federal Budget proposed removing negative gearing for established properties, investors have been running the comparison all over again: property or shares?

This calculator runs the comparison the honest way. Full holding costs included – mortgage repayments, rates, insurance, maintenance. No negative gearing benefit applied at all, which reflects the reality for buyers of established residential property from mid-2027 onwards.

The result, at default settings: a $500,000 investment property bought with a $130,000 outlay (20% deposit plus acquisition costs) beats a $130,000 shares portfolio returning 150% over ten years – by $79,000 in net profit.

The reason is leverage. You controlled a $500,000 asset with $130,000. Shares could not do that.

Adjust every assumption below – capital growth, weekly rent, interest rate, deposit size, mortgage repayment type, and total shares return. The model updates in real time.

How the calculator works

The model runs a year-by-year comparison over ten years, starting with the same initial cash outlay for both investments. For property, it accounts for: capital growth compounding annually, weekly rental income growing at your chosen rate, full holding costs including loan repayments (IO or P&I), council rates, insurance, and maintenance rising at 2.5% per year. Property management fees and vacancy allowance reduce gross rent by 10%. No negative gearing tax benefit is applied.

For shares, it assumes a single lump sum invested upfront with a total return applied at the end of ten years – no fees, no holding costs. Net profit for property is calculated as equity at year ten (property value minus remaining loan) minus initial cash invested minus any cumulative cash shortfall over the holding period.

Frequently asked questions

Does property outperform shares in Australia? At default assumptions – 5.5% annual growth, $450 weekly rent, 6% interest rate, 20% deposit – property returns a net profit of $274,000 over ten years against shares returning 150% ($195,000 net profit) on the same initial outlay. Property wins by $79,000 after every holding cost and with zero negative gearing benefit.

Does property still make sense after the negative gearing changes? This calculator already excludes negative gearing entirely. The model reflects what investors buying established residential property after May 2026 will face from July 2027 under the proposed changes. Property still outperforms shares at a 150% total return assumption – because negative gearing was never the sole reason property worked as an investment.

What growth rate does the calculator assume for property? The default is 5.5% per year, which is conservative relative to historical long-run averages for investment-grade Australian residential property. You can adjust it down to 2% or up to 12% using the slider.

Why does property beat shares even with higher holding costs? Leverage. With a 20% deposit, you control a $500,000 asset with $130,000 of your own cash. Even at 5.5% annual growth, the dollar gain on a $500,000 asset significantly exceeds the gain on a shares portfolio growing at 150% – because the underlying asset base is four times larger.

Is this financial advice? No. This calculator is for illustrative purposes only. It does not account for tax, CGT, LMI, stamp duty variations, or individual financial circumstances. Speak with a licensed financial adviser before making any investment decisions.